With that option off the table, a move to the WAC might look more attractive than staying in the Sun Belt, especially if the WAC can offer a better TV deal with ESPN than the Sun Belt. As discussed at length in other threads, if Villanova moves up and the Big East doesn't raid CUSA, schools like North Texas will know for sure that a CUSA invitation isn't forthcoming anytime soon. This really strikes me as a desperation play by the Sun Belt, especially when it shows up in the newspapers less than a week before the Villanova decision. In every interview Benson does, he emphasizes that the WAC has a history of sending teams to BCS bowls and that whoever joins could be "the next Boise State." The Western Kentucky president made it a point to say "it's just a matter of time" before a Sun Belt team will be "knocking on the door of a BCS bowl." This is a direct response to the core of the WAC's sales pitch. No one was quoted from the schools presumably in the WAC's crosshairs. The Sun Belt folks who were willing to talk to the Herald about expansion are from Troy and Western Kentucky, schools that definitely aren't being targeted by the WAC and that would be hurt by a successful WAC raid.
Nine football members is ideal for scheduling, ten is okay, but eleven is just plain awkward. If the Sun Belt was absolutely confident that none of its members were at risk, it wouldn't have any reason to consider adding one more school. (Yes, I know North Texas has turned down the WAC twice previously, but that was before the WAC's center of gravity moved east of the Rockies, and before the new NCAA rules saved the conference's autobids.) The WAC's delay in inviting Lamar suggests those targets haven't yet rejected the WAC's overtures. The western Sun Belt schools must be the targets. Karl Benson has said on multiple occasions that the WAC hasn't given up on adding current FBS schools, and we all know they aren't coming from the MWC or CUSA. He's genuinely worried about the WAC poaching North Texas and/or Louisiana-Lafayette, and is trying to preempt this by floating offers to LaTech and/or New Mexico State.
Here's my theory: Wright Waters is taking a page out of Craig Thompson's playbook. I find it hard to believe that LaTech is lobbying to join the Sun Belt. All that said, there needs to be a sea change in attitude or the end will soon be in sight. Plus, SJSU has plenty of wealthy high tech alumni to donate. Unlike all those Big Sky schools, SJSU is located in a major metropolitan area and therefore potentially has TV revenue and football recruiting value. San Jose State? I continue to think they've still got a shot at MWC membership. Such a conference with schools in small isolated cities would make a lot of sense. They should drop down to FCS in football and help create a new Big Sky Conference which is actually composed of schools from Big Sky country, including in addition to the schools he mentioned, Weber State and Idaho State. In the era of TV comprising a greater and greater percentage of athletics revenue for which football drives the bus, the SBC's geographical location in the football crazy South gives it a huge advantage over the WAC. I wouldn't have thought that either but in hindsight - which is 20-20 of course - it's not really that surprising. I just think it's funny that the Sun Belt will be the final undoing of the WAC.
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